Whether someone gave them a bunch of sugar energy pills to rile them up, or the team just decided to play better, the Minnesota Gophers banished a decent Iowa team on Saturday, helping Tubby Smith’s team to a 15-7 overall record, including a 5-5 mark in the Big 10. With eight games left, the Gophers would need to go 5-3 the rest of the way to reach the magic number of 20 victories and maintain a winning record in the Big 10 schedule. If they can do that, the Gophers have a chance to make the NCAA tournament in Tubby Smith’s first season at the helm of the program.
Yet the road ahead won’t be easy. The team next faces Illinois, who they have yet to face this season, at Williams Arena. They then travel to Wisconsin, who they lost to 63-47 at Williams Arena, so an upset is not likely. At best, the Gophers will be 1-1 after those two games.
A two-game home stand follows that, with the Gophers facing Michigan and Penn State. The Gophers won by 12 on the road at Michigan and won by three over Penn State on the road earlier this season, so let’s be optimistic and say they win both of those. Now they’re 3-1 the rest of the way.
Where it could all fall apart is in the last four games. They face Purdue on the road, a team they haven’t seen yet this season. This it’s Ohio State at William Arena, but the Gophers lost on the road to the Buckeyes by 16 points earlier this year. The team then finishes our with Indiana on the road - a team they couldn’t beat at home, and a rematch with Illinois in Champaign.
The Gophers will likely need two of those games, and it doesn’t look good; if they fall to the last four opponents, their best record would be 18-12, but with four losses at the end; even if they get hot in the conference tournament, unless they win the automatic bid by taking the tournament, it could still be long odds for the Gophers to make it to the NCAAs this season; at best, with a finish like that, they might earn an NIT bid.
But if they can go 3-1 in the next four, and take two of the last four, the Gophers would be in good shape at 20-10. Anything less and too much is left in the hands of the NCAA Selection Committee